Horizon Scan 1

  • 38 pages

  • Published: 3 Nov 2016

  • Author(s): Hamilton, Dr Grant

  • ISBN: 978-1-74254-990-3

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AgriFutures Australia supports Australian agriculture by anticipating novel developments and tracking long term trends that may impact rural industries. While no forecast can be guaranteed to be perfect, there is an increasing need to connect and analyse many different sources of information.

The Queensland University of Technology (QUT) horizon scanning method used in this report is a powerful combination of interdisciplinary expertise, data mining and visualisation. Expert elicitation and synthesis are used to identify high probability signals, which are explored through data mining. Once emerging trends are refined, visualisation is used to understand and evaluate their progress and enable stakeholders to explore the results. With time, this process will give us the capacity not only to identify strong signals, but also to identify weak signals that have the potential to become strong. This method also enables the analysis of sentiment attached to particular trends.