Models to predict Hendra Virus Prevalence in Flying Fox Populations

  • 34 pages

  • Published: 22 Aug 2016

  • Author(s): McCallum, Hamish

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Hendra virus is an emerging infectious disease, first detected in Queensland in 1994. It is now known that flying foxes are the reservoir host for the Hendra virus, which spills over to horse populations and then to humans. Whilst the number of human cases remains fortunately relatively small, the case fatality rate is around 60%, which has caused enormous public concern, particularly amongst those who associate closely with horses. Spillover events occur sporadically, although they appear to have been increasing in frequency. The objective of this project was to use modelling tools to identify when and where the risk of spillover is particularly high and to identify the factors driving spillover so that the risk posed by spillover both to horses and humans might be reduced.