Alleviating Compounding Flocking Fears: Avian influenza & Migratory Birds

Summary

Australia faces a substantial threat posed by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), underscored by the recent Victorian outbreak of HPAI H7. Even though H7 poses only a small risk to the public and is distinct from the H5N1 strain that is currently of global concern, it serves as a warning of the urgent need for robust planning and preparedness. The ramifications of an HPAI (H5N1) incursion/arrival into Australia are profound, presenting a substantial risk to the poultry sector, and more broadly, to economic and ecological domains.

In the context of this project, an outbreak is defined as a collection of cases over time and space (i.e., not just the index case). Controls/interventions are defined as activities undertaken during a response to limit spread (such as movement restrictions, stamping out, surveillance & tracing, suppressive vaccination, housing orders) and do not include post-outbreak activities such as surveillance in support of proof-of-freedom.

This research proposes to design and implement a simulation model for the spread of HPAI H5N1 in Australia based on the Australian Animal Disease Spread Model (AADIS) framework, involving:
• Modelling potential spread of H5N1 in poultry farms (i.e., given an incursion scenario, poultry industry connectivity data, and wild bird HPAI transmission pressure (aggregating migratory movement, distribution and abundance data)),
• Assessment and comparison of potential control and intervention activities during a response (e.g., stamping out, surveillance & tracing, movement restrictions, suppressive vaccination, housing orders, etc.), considering factors such as duration, resourcing, biomass disposal, cost, and effectiveness.

By pre-emptively assessing risk factors across the industry, and formulating contingency plans, the capacity of stakeholders to anticipate and mount effective responses to future incursions will be enhanced.
The research addresses Priority 2 – Objective 2 of the Chicken Meat Program, to improve the ability to detect exotic poultry diseases in Australia, by facilitating improved biosecurity, via knowledge and enhanced understanding of the weaknesses of the supply chain. From the AgriFutures Research and Innovation Strategic Plan 2022-2027, it addresses Priorities 3 and 4 in the “Our industries” focus area, by:
• Delivering research and innovation addressing specific industry needs,
• Supporting the industries “to prepare for and thrive into the future”

Program

Chicken Meat

Research Organisation

The University of Melbourne

Objective Summary

(Specific) A spread and control model that characterises the potential impacts of HPAI H5N1 in Australia across time and space and allows controls/interventions to be assessed based on their effectiveness, costs and feasibility. Therefore, the main outcome of this project will be an enhanced stakeholders’ capacity to anticipate and mount effective responses to future incursions.

(Measurable) Implementation of appropriate controls/interventions will result in early detection of secondary infection, reduced number of infection clusters, reduced spread, and cost-effective outbreak response.
Given the collaborative nature of the project and the availability of resources, we believe this endeavour is achievable.

(Relevant) We are addressing Priority 2 – Objective 2 of the Chicken Meat Program, to improve the ability to detect exotic poultry diseases in Australia, by facilitating improved biosecurity, via knowledge and enhanced understanding of the weaknesses of the supply chain.

(Time-specific) Expert consultation and stakeholder engagement throughout the life of the project will inform the assessment of modelling quality and reliability. Monitoring outbreaks during and after the project will be however essential.