Geopolitical Shifts: How can Australian agriculture survive and thrive in the midst of a global trade war?

Summary

This research aims to explore the potential implications of a US led global trade war and how shifting US trade policies might affect Australian agricultural exports and imports. By analysing potential future scenarios—including possible US protectionist measures—this work will provide insights into the risks and opportunities facing Australian agriculture.
This project aims to equip the Australian agricultural sector and policy-makers to prepare for and respond to potential threats, and proactively adapt in an uncertain geopolitical landscape.

Program

National Rural Issues

Research Organisation

Australian Farm Institute

Objective Summary

Key research questions
1. What are the potential risks and opportunities for Australian agriculture from a wide-spread trade war?
a. What are Australia’s largest import and export markets? Which are our most vulnerable? What might flow-on effects of market disruption be from potential impact?
b. Who are Australia’s biggest competitors in export markets and products?
c. Are price changes or substitutions likely and what would these mean for the agriculture?
d. Ways that price or cost may be affected for ag commodities and inputs
2. How could changes in US trade policies and protectionist measures affect Australian agricultural exports?
a. To what extent did previous US trade policy changes affect Australian agricultural exports?
b. Are there similarities to China’s increased tariffs in the last 3 years?
c. What Australian agricultural industries are most exposed to substantial changes in US trade policy? What opportunities could potentially arise?
3. How would different US trade policies impact Australian agriculture? (Scenario analysis)
a. Tariffs on Australia
b. Blanket global tariffs
c. China-specific tariffs (current 10%, proposed 60%)
d. North American tariffs (e.g. Canada and Mexico)
e. China-specific trade deal (e.g. 2018 deal repeated)
4. How can Australian agricultural producers prepare for / potentially leverage expected trade disruptions?
5. What policy responses could the Australian Government consider to mitigate risks and enhance the resilience of the agricultural sector?
6. How can Australia leverage international trade agreements to safeguard its agricultural exports amidst US protectionism?